Meteorologist how-to

How to Use Ensemble Forecasts

Ensembles show uncertainty.

Updated By the Career Education Institute Curriculum Team
Quick answer

Ensembles show uncertainty. In short: look; find; compare, then complete the remaining steps below.

Step by step

  1. Look at the spread.

  2. Find clusters.

  3. Compare to deterministic runs.

  4. Weigh trends.

  5. Communicate confidence.

  6. Update.

Safety reminders for meteorologists

  • Communicate warnings clearly
  • Stay safe when storm spotting
  • Follow severe weather plans
  • Manage fatigue on shifts

Front · Dew point · Doppler radar · Numerical model · Watch · Warning: see the full meteorologist glossary.

More meteorologist how-to guides

Learn this in Meteorologist trainingTake the practice test
Enroll in trainingTake fit quiz